OV / GLOBAL MACRO COMMAND

Morning intelligence

Tue, 04 Aug 2026 · London session · research state compiled from public feeds

REFERENCE

ACTIVE REGIMEDisinflationary expansion60/100 composite

RISK TONEPro-risk74% breadth

VOL16.42contained

2s10s+51bp+9bp 1m

CORE CPI3.4%-0.2pp 3m

Meridian regime engine

Base case / constructive with a narrow margin

60COMPOSITE
CONFIDENCE

INVESTMENT COMMITTEE READ

Growth is absorbing restrictive policy while inflation breadth cools.

Cross-asset confirmation remains positive through equities and credit. The principal failure path is a simultaneous rise in real yields, the dollar and volatility.

Goldilocks54%

Reflation21%

Stagflation16%

Deflation9%

FAVOUREDEquity beta · Gold · Credit carry

UNDERWEIGHTBroad USD · Cash duration

INVALIDATIONVIX > 23 · DXY + 10Y rising together

Ranked cross-asset board

Global monitor

AssetLastDay1MSignal

Seven transparent models

Signal ledger

ModelStateScore30D impulsePrimary transmission

Catalyst ladder

Next market-moving releases

Official source intelligence

Central-bank wire

REFERENCE

Connecting to official central-bank release feeds…

Thesis surveillance

Risk register

Real-yield shock

Long-end rates rise without better growth breadth.

HIGH

Dollar / credit divergence

USD strength begins to tighten global risk conditions.

WATCH

Inflation reacceleration

Wages and energy invalidate the easing impulse.

WATCH

Event concentration

4 high-impact releases remain in the weekly book.

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